their relative magnitudes in major shocks. The simulation of an uncertainty shock is then compared to actual 9/11 data …Uncertainty appears to vary strongly over time, temporarily rising by up to 200% around major shocks like the Cuban … Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK and 9/11. This paper offers the first structural framework to analyze uncertainty …

. The notorious prevalence of risk, uncertainty and ignorance makes it difficult, however, to state which parts of it should …

orchard with heterogeneous beliefs, stochastic macro-economic uncertainty, and default risk. I study two manifestations of … uncertainty, namely (i) agents’ disagreement and (ii) time-varying volatility of fundamental growth rates. The paper shows that … moments of the risk premium distribution. Together with uncertainty, default risk associated with levered trees implies a non …

ideological divide, the US seems destined to heightened levels of policy uncertainty for many years to come. Some research … suggests that such uncertainty, particularly over economic policy, partly explains the sluggish nature of the recovery in … America – and - according to one recent study, restoring policy uncertainty to levels that prevailed before the financial …