This paper analyses how entry by an international bank into a developing economy affects the credit market equilibrium. It offers a novel explanation of how a foreign entrant overcomes asymmetric information problems, and complements extant hard vs. soft information based theories of credit...

Convergence concerns the poor catching up with the rich|if not instan- taneously, then at least having a tendency to do so. When poor and rich here refer to entire economies, then whether convergence occurs is traditionally viewed as just a side consequence of a more central ques- tion, namely...

This report presents two of our investigations: one is to obtain an accurate forecast for the corporate bankruptcy; the other is to obtain a physical default intensity. Both investigations were based on the hazard model, using only firm-specific accounting variables as predictors. Different...

We propose a rational theory of momentum and reversal based on delegated portfolio management. A competitive investor can invest through an index fund or an active fund run by a manager with unknown ability. Following a negative cashflow shock to assets held by the active fund, the investor...

Probably not. First, allowing the probabilities attached to the states of the economy to differ from their sample frequencies, the Consumption-CAPM is still rejected by the data and requires a very high level of Relative Risk Aversion(RRA) in order to rationalize the stock market risk premium....

This paper investigates the relationship between infation uncertainty and investment using a panel of loan-level data from small businesses. Micro-level data makes it possible to study phenomena that are obscured in country or industry aggregates. The data show that periods of increased...

Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for optimal saving in a stochastic neo-classical one-good world with discrete time. The usual technique of dynamic programming is replaced by classical variational and concavity arguments, modified to take account of conditions of measurability...

This paper presents a political economy model of inflation as a result of social conflict. Agents are heterogeneous in terms of income. Agents’ income levels determine their ability to hedge against the effects of inflation. The interaction of heterogeneous cash holdings and preferences over...

An economy is in a liquidity trap when monetary policy cannot influence either real or nominal variables of interest. A necessary condition for this is that the short nominal interest rate is constrained by its lower bound, typically zero. The paper considers two small analytical models, one...

The paper draws lessons from the experience of the past year for the conduct of central banks in the pursuit of macroeconomic and financial stability. Macroeconomic stability is defined as either price stability or as price stability and sustainable output or employment growth. Financial...