Recovery rates are negatively related to default probabilities (Altman et al., 2005). This paper proposes and estimates a model in which this dependence is the result of an unobserved credit cycle: When times are bad, the default probability is high and recovery rates are low; when times are...

We develop in this paper a generalization of the Indirect Inference (II) to semi-parametric settings and termed Semi-parametric Indirect Inference (SII). We introduce a new notion of Partial Encompassing which lays the emphasis on Pseudo True Values of Interest. The main difference with the...

The restructuring of a bankrupt company often entails the sale of such company. This paper suggests a way to sell the company that maximizes the creditors’ proceeds. The key to this proposal is the option left to the creditors to retain a fraction of the shares of the company. Indeed, by...

We study a dynamic general equilibrium model in which firms choose their investment level and their capital structure, trading off the tax advantages of debt against the risk of costly default. The costs of bankruptcy are endogenously determined, as bankrupt firms are forced to liquidate their...

This paper contributes to a growing literature on the pitfalls of diversification by shedding light on a new mechanism under which, full risk diversification can be sub-optimal. In particular, banks must choose the optimal level of diversification in a market where returns display a bimodal...

This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer’s (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary...

Efficient semiparametric and parametric estimates are developed for a spatial autoregressive model, containing nonstochastic explanatory variables and innovations suspected to be non-normal. The main stress is on the case of distribution of unknown, nonparametric, form, where series...

We develop generalised indirect inference procedures that handle equality and inequality constraints on the auxiliary model parameters. We also show that the asymptotic efficiency of such estimators can never decrease by explicitly taking into account Lagrange multipliers associated with...

The need to calibrate increasingly complex statistical models requires a persistent effort for further advances on available, computationally intensive Monte-Carlo methods. We study here an advanced version of familiar Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithms that sample from target...

We determine the minimal entropy martingale measure for a general class of stochastic volatility models where both price process and volatility process contain jump terms which are correlated. This generalizes previous studies which have treated either the geometric Lévy case or continuous...