Bruche, Max; Gonzalez-Aguado, Carlos - London School of Economics (LSE) - 2006
ignoring the dynamic nature of credit risk could lead to a severe underestimation of credit risk (e.g. by a factor of up to 1 …Recovery rates are negatively related to default probabilities (Altman et al., 2005). This paper proposes and estimates … a model in which this dependence is the result of an unobserved credit cycle: When times are bad, the default …