We investigate the possible existence of asymmetries among Euro Area countries reactions to the European Central Bank monetary policy. Our analysis is based on a Structural Dynamic Factor model estimated on a large panel of quarterly variables including data on the aggregate Euro Area, as well...

We analyse the Generalised Hyperbolic distribution as a model for fat tails and asymmetries in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models. We provide a standardised version of this distribution, obtain analytical expressions for the log-likelihood score, and explain how...

An economy is in a liquidity trap when monetary policy cannot influence either real or nominal variables of interest. A necessary condition for this is that the short nominal interest rate is constrained by its lower bound, typically zero. The paper considers two small analytical models, one...

Jim Tobin, who died on March 11, 2002 at the age of 84, was one of giants of economics of the second half of the twentieth century and the greatest macroeconomist of his generation. Tobin’s influence on macroeconomic theory is so pervasive - so much part of our professional ‘acquis’ - that...

In Part A of the present study, subtitled 'The Consumption Function as Solution of a Boundary Value Problem' Discussion Paper No. TE/96/297, STICERD, London School of Economics, we formulated a Brownian model of accumulation and derived sufficient conditions for optimality of a plan generated by...

Efficient semiparametric and parametric estimates are developed for a spatial autoregressive model, containing nonstochastic explanatory variables and innovations suspected to be non-normal. The main stress is on the case of distribution of unknown, nonparametric, form, where series...

We provide a general class of tests for correlation in time series, spatial, spatiotemporal and cross-sectional data. We motivate our focus by reviewing how computational and theoretical difficulties of point estimation mount as one moves from regularly-spaced time series data, through forms of...

The paper considers tests for the presence of a random walk component in a stationary or trend stationary time series and extends them to series which contain structural breaks. The locally best invariant (LBI) test is derived and the asymptotic distribution obtained. Then a modified test...

Frequency domain statistics are studied in the presence of fractional deterministic and stochastic trends. It is shown how the behaviour of the sample variance-covariance matrix of nonstationary processes can be dominated by components corresponding to a possibly degenerating band around zero...

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted on the assumption of mean squared error loss under which forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast...