both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment … decisions and time, and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms. These cautionary effects of uncertainty are large …This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on …

Uncertainty appears to vary strongly over time, temporarily rising by up to 200% around major shocks like the Cuban … Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK and 9/11. This paper offers the first structural framework to analyze uncertainty … shocks. I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level data …

Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and … - a “caution-effect” - making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping the … political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of R&D to changes in business conditions …

combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy … costs of ordering firms hold an inventory of intermediates. We show that in response to an uncertainty shock firms optimally … also with disaggregated data back to 1989. Our results suggest a tight link between uncertainty and the cyclical behaviour …

designed to manage uncertainty. It is suggested that a broader analytical repertoire may support development of insight into … together an analysis of the subjective time-risk relationships influencing strategy formation during this period. We being by … examining how different interpretations of urgency and uncertainty can help us understand the co-existence of multiple …

This paper explores the sources of uncertainty that cause firms to revise their capital investment plans and the stock … market to revise its valuation of those firms. A simple method is developed to decompose the uncertainty governing revisions … idiosyncratic uncertainty, but common disturbances are more important for movements in the stock market rate of return. …

This paper investigates the relationship between infation uncertainty and investment using a panel of loan-level data … aggregates. The data show that periods of increased inflation uncertainty are associated with substantial reductions in total … models of investment under uncertainty. …

households reacted to the increase in uncertainty about the future path of income that such an event produced. Our estimates are … part-time employment. …