Bruche, Max; Gonzalez-Aguado, Carlos - London School of Economics (LSE) - 2006
a model in which this dependence is the result of an unobserved credit cycle: When times are bad, the default … ignoring the dynamic nature of credit risk could lead to a severe underestimation of credit risk (e.g. by a factor of up to 1 ….7 in terms of the 95% VaR). Also, the model indicates that the credit cycle is related to but distinct from the business …