The paper draws lessons from the experience of the past year for the conduct of central banks in the pursuit of macroeconomic and financial stability. Macroeconomic stability is defined as either price stability or as price stability and sustainable output or employment growth. Financial...

We document that the firm level hiring rate predicts stock returns in the cross-section of US publicly traded firms even after controlling for investment, size, book-to-market and momentum as well as other known predictors of stock returns. The predictability shows up in both Fama-MacBeth cross...

Which pricing kernel restrictions are needed to make low dimensional Markov models consistent with given sets of predictions on aggregate stock-market fluctuations ? This paper develops theoretical test conditions addressing this and related reverse engineering issues arising within a fairly...

I study the cross sectional variation of stock returns and technological progress using a dynamic equilibrium model with production. In the model, technological progress is en- dogenously driven by R&D investment and is composed of two parts. One part is product innovation devoted to creating...

The Bansal and Yaron (2004) model of long run risks (LLR) in aggregate consumption and dividend growth and its extension that captures potential co- integration of the consumption and dividend levels, are tested on a cross-section of asset classes and rejected using annual data over the period...

This paper provides evidence that managers adjust firm advertising, in part, to attract investor attention and influence short-term stock returns. First, I show that increased advertising spending is associated with a contemporaneous rise in retail buying and abnormal stock returns, and is...

We study a simple rational expectations (RE) model whose asset pricing implications address some of the short-run mispricings, informational inefficiencies, and overreactions observed in real markets, without a need to resort to behavioral assumptions. We accomplish this by relying on the...

We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting from when he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. The model has called many but not all crashes. Those called have high...