This paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Since agents that plan for the future care about expected future utility flows, current felicity can be increased by believing that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, expectations that are biased towards...

This paper presents estimates of key preference parameters of the Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) and Weil (1989) recursive utility model, evaluates the model's ability to fit asset return data relative to other asset pricing models, and investigates the implications of such estimates for the...

This paper uses recently developed methods for estimating dynamic heterogeneous cointegrated panel data models - which allows for heterogeneity in parameters and dynamics across agents - to study housing wealth effects in a dynamic model of the 50 US states and the District of Columbia from the...

This paper shows, from the consumer’s budget constraint, that expected future labor income growth rates and the residuals of the cointegration relation among log consumption, log asset wealth and log current labor income (summarized by the variable cay of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a)), should...

This paper shows that the systematic risk (or "beta") of individual stocks increases by an economically and statistically signi…cant amount on days of firm-specific news announcements, and reverts to its average level two to five days later. We employ intra-daily data and recent advances in...

How big a boost to long run growth can countries expect from the ICT revolution? I use the results of growth accounting and the insights from a two-sector growth model to answer this question. The use of a two-sector rather than a one-sector model is required because of the very rapid rate at...

We study substitutions between home and market production over long periods of time. We use the results to get predictions about long-run trends in aggregate market hours of work and about employment shifts across economic sectors, driven by uneven TFP growth in market and home production. The...

We study a multi-sector model of growth with differences in TFP growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change, characterized by sectoral labor reallocation, and balanced aggregate growth. The conditions are weak restrictions on the utility...

This paper develops a model of economic growth and activity locating endogenously on a 3- dimensional featureless global geography. The same economic forces influence simultaneously growth, convergence, and spatial agglomeration and clustering. Economic activity is not concentrated on discrete...

Whether or not the marginal product of capital (MPK) differs across countries is a question that keeps coming up in discussions of comparative economic development and patterns of capital flows. We use easily accessible macroeconomic data to shed light on this issue, and find that MPKs are...