This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies). The innovations include the treatment of difficult to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common latent...

Housing and pension wealth are shown to be important determinants of personal sector consumption and retirement behaviour in the UK. Housing and state pension wealth have a positive effect on consumption, while private pension wealth promotes greater savings. Greater private defined benefit...

We frequently observe that one of the aims of time series analysts is to predict future values of the data. For weakly dependent data, when the model is known up to a finite set of parameters, its statistical properties are well documented and exhaustively examined. However, if the model was...

We look into the available macroeconomic figures and the predictions made about the recession in Greece by international organizations, Greek research centers, and the Greek government; and suggest that the predictions regarding the decline in real GDP in recent years were overly optimistic. The...

Disregarding spatial dependence can invalidate methods for analyzing cross-sectional and panel data. We discuss ongoing work on developing methods that allow for, test for, or estimate, spatial dependence. Much of the stress is on nonparametric and semiparametric methods.

This paper introduces a new model for portfolio credit risk incorporating default and spread widening in a simple and consistent framework. Credit spreads are modelled by geometric Brownian motions with a dependence structure powered by a t-copula. Their joint evolution drives the spreads...

This paper suggests overcoming some limitations of traditional inequality decomposition methods by developing a combination of Burtless (1999) and DiNardo et al. (1996), two different microsimulation methods for decomposing inequality. By using this combination it is possible to take into...