Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin - London School of Economics and Political Science - 2008
This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from diffusionindices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economicactivity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which isreversed after...