We evaluate explanations for why Germany grew so quickly in the 1950s. The recent literature has emphasized convergence, structural change and institutional shake-up while minimizing the importance of the post-war shock. We show that this shock and its consequences were more important than...

The emergence of new economic activities is the driving force of economic development. The development of such activities is often ‘lumpy’, manifesting itself in rapid growth of particular regions or sectors. Recognition of these facts requires a reorientation of the analytical frameworks...

[...]This article examines how Japanese exporters areresponding to the conflicting objectives of maintainingstable profit margins and stable export sales when the valueof the yen fluctuates. We find that Japanese firms tend tostrike a balance between these goals. The firms’ foreigncustomers do...

[...]Derivatives contracts are especially efficient vehiclesfor unbundling the price risks embodied in assets andliabilities.2 The contracts allow users to trade away therisks they do not wish to be exposed to while retainingother risk exposures. For example, in a financing relationshipbetween a...

By analysing a newly compiled database of exchange rates, this paper finds that Central European financial integration advanced in a cyclical fashion over the fifteenth century. The cycles were associated with changes in the money supply. Long-distance financial integration progressed in...

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of alternative monetary rules on realexchange rate persistence. Using a two-country stochastic dynamic general equilibrium withnominal price stickiness and local currency pricing, we will show how the persistence ofpurchasing power parity...

This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will beabandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due tolearning about the threshold, some features usually observed in the data and identified with modelswith...

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency lessattractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model andestimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from...

This paper shows that properly designed interest rate rules can be consistent withmaintaining exchange rate stability. It sheds light on the relation between interest rate rules,exchange rate regimes, and determinacy of the rational expectation equilibrium in a modernmacroeconomic framework.[...]

We propose a theory of exchange rate determination under interestrate rules in a two-country model. We first show that simpleinterest rate feedback rules can determine a unique and stableequilibrium without any explicit reaction to the nominal exchangerate.We characterize how the behavior of the...