Accession to the Economic and Monetary Union is one of the most important steps in Hungary's European integration, which will entail abandoning the national currency and adopting the euro as domestic legal tender. For Hungary as a new member state in the EU, introduction of the euro will not be...

It is well documented in the literature that identified vector autoregression (VAR) models often produce puzzling results when the effect of unexpected monetary policy movements is estimated. Many authors find that raising interest rate generates protracted appreciation of the exchange rate (the...

March 2011 marked the introduction of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both macroeconomic projection and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to previous conditional projections, the MPM provides an endogenous definition of both...

This article investigates the potential impact of a shift in market expectations about a country’s eurozone entry date on long-term yields and the spot exchange rate in a simple uncovered interest parity (UIP) framework. The results suggest that the size of the reactions depend on how far the...

In the present paper we examine how the introduction of endogenous participation in an otherwise standard DSGE model with matching frictions and nominal rigidities affects business cycle dynamics and monetary policy. The contribution of the paper is threefold: first, we show that the model...

The post-Lehman phase of the financial crisis has exposed a number of weaknesses in the banking sectors of the European Union’s New Member States (NMSs). One of these is the prevalence of lending in foreign currency. While banks themselves in these countries have not taken on sizeable currency...

In this study we examine the impact on Hungary of a possible correction of global imbalances. We distinguished four different channels of the global adjustment process, which are widely referred to in the literature (fiscal tightening in the U.S.; housing price correction in the US; an increase...

The focus of this paper is on the use of staff policy recommendations in central banks. Based on the responses to a recent survey conducted by the Bank of International Settlements, the paper tries to answer two questions. (1) How (to what extent) do central bank decision-makers make use of...

This paper empirically tests whether monetary policy can have a perverse effect on aggregate demand in emerging economies, because of short-term speculative inflows. For this purpose, a bayesian VAR is estimated on a panel of six major emerging countries. Monetary and risk shocks are identified...