This paper provides a statistical analysis of the components of real exchange rate in Hungary for the period 1991-1996. The real exchange rate is decomposed into a tradable and a nontradable rate. The following main conclusions are valid: 1. The Balassa-Samuelson effect, which presumes a real...

This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...

The paper summarizes the research on forecasting the Hungarian export volume. We elaborated a two-step procedure. In the first step we forecasted foreign demand, then in the second step we forecasted Hungarian export using the best outcome of the first step together with real exchange rate and...

This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable...

This paper investigates the trade integration of three Central and Eastern European countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, using the gravity model for trade as an analytical device. Beside the usual variables in such a model, we have also incorporated the FDI variables....

This paper explores the major determinants of the exchange rate pass-through to CPI. The simulations were performed with the Bank's estimated Hungarian block linked to the NIGEM model of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The modelling framework offers some insight...

CEE countries experience a catching up period in economic growth while preparing for accession to the European Union. In several countries we experience an expenditure boom arising either from exuberant expectations of consumers towards EU or EM or a fiscal deficit usually underpinned by an...

Income per capita of Hungary attained 70 percent of the Austrian level by the end of the eighteenth century and fluctuated around this value between the World Wars. As an „achievement” of the last 50 years this ratio — measured at purchasing power parity — has decreased to about 40...

The model is an application of the precautionary consumer saving model to the external debt policy of a small open economy. Let us assume that the welfare criterion of macroeconomic policy is the utility function of a representative infinitely living dynasty. This approach is in line with the...

In open economies excess demand in the tradables sector often manfests itself in an external deficit instead of the employment gap that is applied in the usual Phillips-curve model. The inflationary pressure in this case arises from an expected or actual weakening of the exchange rate and its...