MNB has received daily, transaction-level data on key Hungarian interest rate derivatives markets since the beginning of 2009 with the launching of the K14 report. The dataset that has accumulated since early 2009 provides an opportunity to better comprehend the structure and functioning of...

CEE countries experience a catching up period in economic growth while preparing for accession to the European Union. In several countries we experience an expenditure boom arising either from exuberant expectations of consumers towards EU or EM or a fiscal deficit usually underpinned by an...

In this paper we estimate risk-neutral probability density functions from EUR/HUF currency options using the Malz (1997) method. First, we compare different option-based indicators. We present so-called 'shortcut' indicators, i.e. indicators that can be calculated directly, without the...

The paper estimates currency risk premia for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Three different approaches are applied: a constant premium approach based on rational expectations, while time-varying premia are estimated with a method using financial market analysts’ surveys and...

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that...

The paper estimates the immediate impact of Hungarian monetary policy on three classes of asset prices: the exchange rate of the forint vis-à-vis the euro, spot and forward government bond yields and the index of the Budapest Stock Exchange. The endogeneity problem is treated with the method of...