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Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is … particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460575
volatility estimation. In particular, we use market microstructure theory to derive the cross-correlation function between latent … geometrically. If market makers are sufficiently risk averse, however, the cross-correlation pattern is inverted. Our results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462188
It depends. If volatility fluctuates in a forecastable way, then volatility forecasts are useful for risk management …; hence the interest in volatility forecastability in the risk management literature. Volatility forecastability, however … volatility forecastability decays quickly with horizon. Volatility forecastability, although clearly of relevance for risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471968
What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry … assessments of market risk. Clearly, the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions -- in particular, real …-time risk tracking in very high-dimensional situations -- impose strict limits on model complexity. Hence we stress parsimonious …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467618
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001617180
Using high-frequency data on Deutschemark and Yen returns against the dollar, we construct model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility and correlation, covering an entire decade. In addition to being model-free, our estimates are also approximately free of measurement error under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471846
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480620
The Svensson generalization of the popular Nelson-Siegel term structure model is widely used by practitioners and central banks. Unfortunately, like the original Nelson-Siegel specification, this generalization, in its dynamic form, does not enforce arbitrage-free consistency over time. Indeed,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464184
We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequencies), and we use a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering. We illustrate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464298
We derive the class of arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models that approximate the widely-used Nelson-Siegel yield-curve specification. Our theoretical analysis relates this new class of models to the canonical representation of the three-factor arbitrage-free affine model. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465028