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The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Bianchi, Francesco - 2018
-side uncertainty. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle … to illustrate how multiple distinct risk propagation channels account for these differences. Supply and demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481034
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The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
Bloom, Nicholas - 2007
Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil-price shock and the 9/11 terrorist attack. This paper offers a structural framework to analyze the impact of these uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465265
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Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy
Leeper, Eric M. - 2010
Monetary policy decisions tend to be based on systematic analysis of alternative policy choices and their associated macroeconomic impacts: this is science. Fiscal policy choices, in contrast, spring from unsystematic speculation, grounded more in politics than economics: this is alchemy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462148
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Learning and Expectations in Dynamic Spatial Economies
Fan, Jingting; Hong, Sungwan; Parro, Fernando - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The impact of shocks in dynamic environments depends on how forward-looking agents anticipate the path of future fundamentals that shape their decisions. We incorporate flexible beliefs about future fundamentals in a general class of dynamic spatial models, allowing beliefs to be evolving,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322891
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Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Correa, Ricardo; Di Giovanni, Julian; Goldberg, Linda S.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436991
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Impacts of Covid-19 on the World Bank's Forest Investment Program Portfolio
World Bank - 2023
With the COVID-19 pandemic, the development context for the world is fundamentally challenged in many ways. The pandemic has taken a drastic human toll, and its global-scale economic and social impacts affected rural development work focused on the most poor and vulnerable populations. It has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014580022
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Idiosyncratic Income Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations
Debortoli, Davide; Galí, Jordi - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We study the role of idiosyncratic income shocks for aggregate fluctuations within a simple heterogeneous household framework with no binding borrowing constraints. We show that the presence of idiosyncratic income shocks affects the economy's response to an aggregate shock in a way that can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814479
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Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Altig, David - 2020
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481613
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COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty
Baker, Scott R. - 2020
Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators - stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481939
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The Distribution of COVID-19 Related Risks
Baylis, Patrick - 2020
This paper documents two COVID-related risks, viral risk and employment risk, and their distributions across the … Canadian population. The measurement of viral risk is based on the VSE COVID Risk/Reward Assessment Tool, created to assist … women are more concentrated in high viral risk occupations and that this is the source of their greater employment loss over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482100