inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

the evidence in favour a nonlinear Phillips curve may is fact be driven by improperly controlling for inflation …

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is … strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in … response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing …

economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …

To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …

to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies--event studies, vector … through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation …

This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as … measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with …-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in …

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …