We ask whether a PAYG-financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. We argue that interactions between the two risks are important for this question. One is a direct interaction in the form of a countercyclical variance of idiosyncratic...

Im Jahr 2001 wurde mit der Einführung der so genannten Riester-Rente ein Paradigmenwechsel in der Altersvorsorge eingeleitet. Durch die Finanzkrise 2008/09 ist die Frage, wie groß das Risiko der kapitalgedeckten Altersvorsorge ist, jedoch wieder aktuell geworden. Vor allem wird diskutiert, ob...

Die starken Vermögensverluste einzelner Anlageklassen in 2008 durch die Finanz- und aufkommende Wirtschaftskrise führte zu einer Diskussion über die Risiken der kapitalgedeckten Altersvorsorge. Diese Studie quantifiziert die Höhe der Vermögensverluste und Renditeeinbußen durch die Finanz-...

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the...

This paper analyzes the implications of demographic change for economic growth in di®erent countries. Quantitative projections are based on a multi-country over- lapping generations model that is augmented with actual demographic data and pro- jections for di®erent OECD regions. According...

We present a quantitative analysis of international capital flows induced by differential population aging and pension reform. It is well known that within each country, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings. This process may be amplified if pension reform shifts old-age...

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed-economy, overlapping-generations model to compare the effects of the recent German...

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision...