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Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices

Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2006

This study suggests that confidence intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices may be improved if they are estimated using an empirical approach. Empirical confidence intervals are calculated following Williams and Goodman's (1971) method and use historical forecast errors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005804786

USDA INTERVAL FORECASTS OF CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES: OVERCONFIDENCE OR RATIONAL INACCURACY?

Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2003

The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) price forecasts are published in the form of an interval, but typically analyzed as point estimates. Thus, all information about uncertainty imbedded in the forecast is ignored. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005536782

EVALUATING FORECASTS OF DISCRETE VARIABLES: PREDICTING CATTLE QUALITY GRADES

Brorsen, B. Wade; Lusk, Jayson L.; Norwood, F. Bailey - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2004

forecasts of fed-cattle quality grades, the forecast evaluation methods are shown to increase cattle marketing revenues by $2 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005801178

Factors Affecting Hedging Decisions Using Evidence from the Cotton Industry

Isengildina, Olga; Hudson, Darren - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2001

study seeks to analyze producer hedging behavior within the framework of the overall marketing behavior. Producer marketing … behavior is modeled as a simultaneous choice between cash sales, cooperative marketing and forward contracts, and hedging. A … (direct hedging vs. cooperative marketing and forward contracts). …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005805810

EFFECTS OF MEAT RECALLS ON FUTURES MARKET PRICES

Lusk, Jayson L.; Schroeder, Ted C. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2000

The number of meat recalls has increased markedly in recent years. Meat recalls have the potential to adversely affect short run demand for meat because of the associated decline in consumer confidence. This research examines the impact of beef and pork recalls on nearby daily live cattle and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005807879

The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets

Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2005

The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value of USDA reports in hog and cattle markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005459788