This research presents an intuitive interpretation and expression for pricing cash settled futures contracts. In particular, the choice of the averaging period for the underlying cash index is evaluated. For example, the averaging period for the Lean Hog futures contract is two days, whereas it...

Theoretical and simulation results clarify the role of procurement contracting in determining spot price levels and volatility. A generic model determines market share across quality. Actual supply is specified as price dependent and stochastic. Simulation examines the sensitivity of price level...

This research provides an overview of the development of the Tokyo Grain Exchange non-GMO soybean contract as an identity preserved futures contract. The development of this contract is unique, relative to the development of other new futures contracts, in that a mature conventional soybean...

We derive a new hedge ratio based on weighted expected utility. Weighted expected utility is a generalization of expected utility that permits non-linear probability weights. Generally speaking weighted expected utility hedge ratios are less than minimum variance hedge ratios and larger than...

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders data are examined. Non-commercial positions are thought to contain the least amount of measurement error. Although non-commercials comprise a relatively small percent of the tested markets' open interest (10% to 22%), they have...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pricing performance of agricultural market advisory services in hogs. Pricing recommendations are available for all quarters from the beginning of 1995 through the end of 2001. The results show that average differences between advisory programs and...

In settings where there is imperfect information about an underlying state of nature, but where inferences are made sequentially and are publicly observable, information cascades can lead to rational herding. Cascade phenomena may be seen in a variety of areas including technology adoption,...

Although there is little academic research that supports the usefulness of technical analysis, its use remains widespread in commodity markets. Much prior research into technical analysis suffered from data-snooping biases. Using genetic programming, ex ante optimal technical trading strategies...