Showing 1 - 10 of 122
This study suggests that confidence intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices may be improved if they are estimated using an empirical approach. Empirical confidence intervals are calculated following Williams and Goodman's (1971) method and use historical forecast errors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005804786
Previous research found that country elevators that are the first in their area to grade wheat and pay quality-adjusted prices would receive above-normal profits at the expense of their competitors. Because of spatial monopsony, these early-adopting elevators would pass on to producers only 70%...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005525623
This analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005801181
Standard models of hedging behavior assume that either hedgers wish to minimize net price variation or they wish to balance variation versus profits. These models treat variation as risk and fail to distinguish between variation that is random and variation that is not random over time. Newer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005807440
while adding value for feeder cattle buyers. However, questions remain regarding the marginal returns from marketing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005536784
The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic value of USDA WASDE reports in corn and soybean markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005330645
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of agricultural market advisory services in marketing wheat … advisory service recommendations for wheat are available from the AgMAS Project for the 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 marketing … performance measures for overlapping and non-overlapping adjacent marketing years. In general, the predictability results provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344113
Marketing is viewed as an important component of the farm management process, and poor marketing is often cited as a …, and available evidence is too limited to make definitive conclusions about farmer marketing abilities. This paper examines … the actual marketing performance of corn and soybean producers in Illinois. Farmer marketing data is based on the USDA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005801187
study seeks to analyze producer hedging behavior within the framework of the overall marketing behavior. Producer marketing … behavior is modeled as a simultaneous choice between cash sales, cooperative marketing and forward contracts, and hedging. A … (direct hedging vs. cooperative marketing and forward contracts). …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005805810
The demand for hedging against price uncertainty in the presence of crop yield and revenue insurance contracts is examined for French wheat farms. The rationale for the use of options in addition to futures is first highlighted through the characterization of the first-best hedging strategy in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005807444