This paper estimates the unrecorded economic activity and employment in Macedonia during 1998-2013. We model the unrecorded economic activity as an unobserved process that depends on tax "burden", business regulations and quality of governance, and affects cash in circulation, foreign currency...

This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the ESI within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic...