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realignment of world growth rates -- with Japan and Europe growing faster, and the U.S. growing more slowly -- is likely to solve … a percentage point of GDP. Taken together, these results indicate that a realignment of global growth -- with Japan and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465752
In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large "current account reversals." The results from a variance-component probit model indicate that the probability of experiencing a major current account reversal is positively affected by larger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466540
The future of the U.S. current account -- and thus of the U.S. dollar -- depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios. However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467007
In this paper I analyze the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the U.S. current account. I deal with issues of sustainability, and I discuss the mechanics of current account adjustment. The analysis presented in this paper differs from other work in several respects: First, I emphasis the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467137
In this paper I use a broad multi-country data set to analyze the relationship between restrictions to capital mobility and external crises. The analysis focuses on two manifestations of external crises: (a) sudden stops of capital inflows; and (b) current account reversals. I deal with two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467515
In this paper I use a panel data set to investigate the mechanics of sudden stops of capital inflows and current account reversals. I am particularly interested in four questions: (a) What is the relationship between sudden stops and current account reversals? (b) To what extent does financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468416
In this paper I analyze the anatomy of current account adjustments in the world economy during the last three decades. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Major reversals in current account deficits have tended to be associated to sudden stops' of capital inflows. (b) The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468417
During the last three years New Zealand has faced increasingly large external imbalances. The current account deficit has increased from 4.3% of GDP in 2003 to almost 9.0% of GDP in 2005. During the same period the country's net international investment position (NIIP) went from a negative level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466041
The purpose of this paper is to investigate in detail the behavior of the current account in emerging economies, and in particular its role if any in financial crises. Models of current account behavior are reviewed, and a dynamic model of current account sustainability is developed. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470449
In this paper I investigate the historical record of countries that have lived under a 'dollarized' monetary system. As it turns out, this is a very small group of counties, most of which have operated under very special circumstances, and for which there are very limited data. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470450