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Trade War and Peace : U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050

Alessandria, George A.; Khan, Shafaat Yar; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486241

Lessons from U.S.-China Trade Relations

Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the last decades. We first discuss the origins of the China shock, its measurement, and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361989

Trade Wars and Trade Talks

Grossman, Gene M. - 1993

Whether governments clash in trade disputes or negotiate over trade agreements, their actions in the international arena reflect political conditions back home. Previous studies of cooperative and noncooperative trade relations have focused on governments that are immune from political pressures...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474682

Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data

Ossa, Ralph - 2011

How large are optimal tariffs? What tariffs would prevail in a worldwide trade war? How costly would be a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation? And what is the scope for future multilateral trade negotiations? I address these and other questions using a unified framework which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461311

Trade Policy and Global Sourcing : An Efficiency Rationale for Tariff Escalation

Antràs, Pol; Fort, Teresa C.; Gutierrez, Agustin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Import tariffs tend to be higher for final goods than for inputs, a phenomenon commonly referred to as tariff escalation. Yet neoclassical trade theory - and modern Ricardian trade models, in particular - predict that welfare-maximizing tariffs are uniform across sectors. We show that tariff...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334443

Regionalism and rivalry : Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia

Frankel, Jeffrey A. (ed.); Kahler, Miles (contributor) - 1993

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013480821

Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains

Heise, Sebastian; Pierce, Justin R.; Schaur, Georg; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We show that reducing the probability of a trade war promotes long-term importer-exporter relationships that ensure provision of high-quality inputs via incentive premia. Empirically, we introduce a method for distinguishing between these Japanese versus spot-market (i.e., American)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486230

Adjustment in the World Economy

Krugman, Paul - 1987

There is a widespread view that world payments imbalances can be remedied through increased demand in surplus countries and reduced demand in deficit countries, without any need for real exchange rate changes. In fact shifts in demand and real exchange rate adjustment are necessary couplets, not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476644

Trade policy issues and empirical analysis : [papers from a conference held by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass., Feb. 13 - 14, 1987]

Baldwin, Robert E. (ed.) - 1988 - 1. [print.]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013480866

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

Eaton, Jonathan - 1995

region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be … associated with more DFI from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an … important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473842

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