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In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large "current account reversals." The results from a variance-component probit model indicate that the probability of experiencing a major current account reversal is positively affected by larger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466540
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465061
Most analyses of the macroeconomic adjustment required to correct global imbalances ignore net exports of new varieties of goods and services and do not account for firms' entry in the product market. In this paper we revisit the macroeconomics of trade adjustment in the context of the classic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464851
Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics -- the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio -- appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466674
Do global current account imbalances still matter in a world of deep international financial markets where gross two-way financial flows often dwarf the net flows measured in the current account? Contrary to a complete markets or "consenting adults" view of the world, large current account...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460782
There is a widespread view that world payments imbalances can be remedied through increased demand in surplus countries and reduced demand in deficit countries, without any need for real exchange rate changes. In fact shifts in demand and real exchange rate adjustment are necessary couplets, not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476644
region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be … associated with more DFI from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an … important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473842
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013481059
This paper reviews the main developments in U.S. trade and the balance of payments from the first years of the 19th century to the first decade of the 20th. American export trade was dominated by agricultural and other resource products long after the majority of the labor force had shifted out...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474218
What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479779