We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

the flow of workers from Eastern Europe, the fear of unemployment has risen in the UK which appears to have contained wage … rate of unemployment …

Following Phillip's original work on the UK, applied research on unemployment and wages has been dominated by the … rate of unemployment. This 'wage curve' is found to have an elasticity of approximately -0.1. Contrary to the Phillips …

1) Fear of unemployment substantially depresses pay in both countries …3) The unemployment elasticity of pay averages -0.1 in the UK and apparently zero in the US …

This paper, which follows in an LSE tradition begun by Phillips and Sargan, examines the role of unemployment in … a variety of data sets as a check on the robustness of results, and 3) studies the effects of unemployment on the real … curve. The curve has a negative gradient at low levels of unemployment, but becomes horizontal at relatively high levels of …

in 2010 that is not matched by declines in happiness measures (positive affect). The fear of unemployment obtained from …

The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the … is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility …

variables while it is uncorrelated with life satisfaction. The unemployment rate and the CPI reduce both. We analyze data for 29 … European countries to predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead using individuals' fears of unemployment in the … presence of country and year fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use firms' expectations of future employment, which …