We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. It is a remarkable fact that, prior to 2020, after unemployment … reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery began, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate was stable at around 0 … crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down to its minimum level of approximately 3.5 percentage points. The …

New data compel a new view of events in the labor market during a recession. Unemployment rises almost entirely because … finding from new data is that a large fraction of workers departing jobs move to new jobs without intervening unemployment. I …

of key variables-potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, and the equilibrium real interest rate, need to solve a … them. Further, low-frequency movements of unemployment suggest a failure of the basic idea that departures from the …-frequency movements of unemployment. I conclude that monetary policymakers should not try to discern neutral values of real variables …

a burst of layoffs. Unemployment rises because jobs are hard to find, not because an unusual number of people are thrown … into unemployment …

claims on business income also rise. According to the leading view of unemployment-the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model …-when the incentive for job creation falls, the labor market slackens and unemployment rises. Employers recover their … when the discount rate rises. Thus high discount rates imply high unemployment. This paper does not explain why the …

The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the … is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility …