Recent work has demonstrated that existing solutions of the unemployment volatility puzzle are at odds with the …. Our model reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long … therefore greatly declines, leading to a large decrease in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment of the same magnitude …

Recent critiques have demonstrated that existing attempts to account for the unemployment volatility puzzle of search … reproduces the observed fluctuations in unemployment because hiring a worker is a risky investment with long-duration surplus … benefit from creating new matches greatly drops, leading to a large decline in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment …

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the … is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility …