We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

Following Phillip's original work on the UK, applied research on unemployment and wages has been dominated by the … rate of unemployment. This 'wage curve' is found to have an elasticity of approximately -0.1. Contrary to the Phillips …

This paper, which follows in an LSE tradition begun by Phillips and Sargan, examines the role of unemployment in … a variety of data sets as a check on the robustness of results, and 3) studies the effects of unemployment on the real … curve. The curve has a negative gradient at low levels of unemployment, but becomes horizontal at relatively high levels of …

The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the … is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility …