This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study … the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of … distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in …

sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment (LTU) during the Great Recession. We first show that compositional … shifts in demographics, occupation, industry, region, and the reason for unemployment jointly account for very little of the … model that allows for duration dependence in the exit rate from unemployment and for transitions between employment (E …

We study how the level of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits that trades off the consumption smoothing benefit with … moral hazard cost is procyclical, greater when the unemployment rate is relatively low. By contrast, our evidence suggests … standard deviation increase in the unemployment rate leads to a roughly 14 to 27 percentage point increase in the welfare …