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Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions : New Causal Evidence

Coibion, Olivier - 2018

credit, and reduce their employment and capital. However, when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound …, demand effects are stronger, leading firms to raise their prices more and no longer reduce their employment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481059

Minimum Wages and Teenage Childbearing : New Estimates Using a Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Approach

Rees, Daniel I.; Sabia, Joseph J.; Margolit, Rebecca - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

The minimum wage is increasingly viewed as an important tool for improving public health outcomes, including reducing childbearing among teenagers. Taken at face value, recently reported estimates suggest that raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour could reduce the number of teenage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660012

Intended and Unintended Effects of E-cigarette Taxes on Youth Tobacco Use

Abouk, Rahi; Courtemanche, Charles; Dave, Dhaval; Feng, Bo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Over the past decade, rising youth use of e-cigarettes and other electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has prompted aggressive regulation by state and local governments. Between 2010 and 2019, ten states and two large counties adopted ENDS taxes. Applying a continuous treatment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629436

Is Recreational Marijuana a Gateway to Harder Drug Use and Crime?

Sabia, Joseph J.; Dave, Dhaval; Alotaibi, Fawaz; Rees, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Recreational marijuana laws (RMLs), which legalize the possession of small quantities of marijuana for recreational use, have been adopted by 18 states and the District of Columbia. Opponents argue that RML-induced increases in marijuana consumption will serve as a "gateway" to harder drug use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599328

The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers

McClure, Ethan M. L.; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers' and non-managers' expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and non-managers exhibit similar average inflation and unemployment expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191080

The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic

Weber, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

As the pandemic spread across the U.S., disagreement among U.S. households about inflation expectations surged along with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, the inflation experienced by households became more dispersed. Using matched micro data on spending of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814415

Schools, Job Flexibility, and Married Women's Labor Supply : Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic

Hansen, Benjamin; Sabia, Joseph J.; Schaller, Jessamyn - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

proxy for in-person attendance at US K-12 schools using smartphone data from Safegraph and measure female employment, hours … associated with significant increases in employment and hours among married women with school-aged children, with no measurable … effects on labor supply in comparison groups. Employment effects of school reopenings are concentrated among mothers of older …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814435

Have Recreational Marijuana Laws Undermined Public Health Progress on Adult Tobacco Use?

Dave, Dhaval; Liang, Yang; Pesko, Michael F.; Phillips, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Public health experts caution that legalization of recreational marijuana may normalize smoking and undermine the decades-long achievements of tobacco control policy. However, very little is known about the impact of recreational marijuana laws (RMLs) on adult tobacco use. Using information from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814481

Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID19 Recession

Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; McCrory, Peter B. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794559

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations

Coibion, Olivier - 2020

We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households' expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479302