This paper proposes a method for separating economic time series into a smooth component whose mean varies over time (the trend') and a stationary component (the cycle'). The aim is to make the trends as smooth as possible while also producing cycles with plausible properties. While the main...

This paper estimates simultaneously dynamic equations for the Deutsche Mark/Dollar exchange rate and the German wholesale price index, which emerge from a model in which German prices are sticky. This stickiness is due to price adjustment costs which take the form posited by Rotemberg(1982).The...

This paper presents a dynamic model of the industrial demands for structures, equipment, and blue- and white-collar labor. Our approach is consistent with producers holding rational expectations and optimizing dynamically in the presence of adjustment costs, yet it permits generality of...

This paper presents the competitive equilibrium of an economy in which people hold money for transactions purposes. It studies both the steady states which result from different rates of monetary expansion and the effects of such non-steady state events as an open market operation. Even though...

Modern neoclassical theories of the business cycle posit that aggregate fluctuations in consumption and employment are the consequence of dynamic optimizing behavior by economic agents who face no quantity constraint. In this paper, we estimate an explicit model :f this type. In particular, we...

Two of the puzzling macroeconomic phenomena of the 1970s have been the persistent stagnation in Europe, and the disagreement between the U.S. and Europe on the feasibility of recovery by demand expansion. This paper develops the hypothesis that the source of both the stagnation and the policy...

This paper discusses two simple decompositions for aggregate productivity analysis in the presence of distortions and in general equilibrium. The first is a generalization of Baqaee and Farhi (2017) and the second is due to Petrin and Levinsohn (2012). In the process, we propose a new...

How does an increase in the size of the market due to fertility, immigration, or trade integration, affect welfare and real GDP? We study this question using a model with heterogeneous firms, fixed costs, and monopolistic competition. We decompose the change in welfare into changes in technical...