We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …

This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies--event studies, vector … through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation …

fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …

cointegration-based VAR (EC-VAR) model, successfully account for the crosssectional variation in equity returns at both short and … of cointegration-based long run consumption risks for financial markets …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …