We study the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of...

This paper studies the role played by the distribution sector in shaping the behavior of the real exchange rate during exchange-rate-based-stabilizations. We use data for the U.S. and Argentina to document the importance of distribution margins in retail prices and disaggregated price data to...

This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density...

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is now a standard concept in international macroeconomic theory and policy. However, there is neither a consensus indicator of misalignment, nor an agreed upon methodology for constructing such an indicator. This paper constructs an indicator of RER...

This paper empirically analyzes a broad range of real exchange rate appreciation episodes. The cases are identified after compiling a large sample of monthly multilateral real exchange rates from 1960 to 1994. The objective is twofold. First, the paper studies the dynamics of appreciations,...

We use data from Guatemala and Honduras to investigate some implications of the Purchasing Power Parity theory over the long run. In particular, we address two questions. First, to what extent did the fixed exchange rate regime impose macroeconomic discipline on these countries. Second, what was...

This paper reviews and analyzes the empirical record of exchange rates and prices during the 1970's and the analysis is based on the experience of the Dollar/Pound, the Dollar/French Franc and the Dollar/DM exchange rates. Section 2 presents the evidence on PPP during the 1970's and contrasts it...

This report presents two unrelated, short papers on exchange rate rules and on the real value of the external debt. The paper on exchange rate policy uses the Taylor model of overlapping, long term wage contracts to ask whether accommodating or PPP oriented exchange rate policies tend to...

This paper investigates the adjustment process to a reduction in the rate of credit creation in an open, flexible exchange rate economy. The framework of analysis is one of rational expectations with respect to interest rates, inflation and depreciation. The special feature of the model is the...

We dissect the impact of a large and sudden exchange rate appreciation on Swiss border import prices, retail prices, and consumer expenditures on domestic and imported non-durable goods, following the removal of the EUR/CHF floor in January 2015. Cross-sectional variation in border price changes...