Showing 1 - 10 of 34
-slump macroeconomic cycles. During both crises, world trade collapsed faster than world incomes and the trade decline was highly … trade costs hitting international supply chains. So far, the global economy has avoided the global trade wars and banking … collapses of the Depression perhaps due to improved policy. Even so, the global economy remains susceptible to large shocks due …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462356
Foreign currency debt is widely believed to increase risks of financial crisis, especially after being implicated as a cause of the East Asian crisis in the late 1990s. In this paper, we study the effects of foreign currency debt on currency and debt crises and its indirect short and long run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463115
labor regulation of partners because intraindustry trade was important. The New World exported less differentiated products …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463276
Interconnections between banking crises and fiscal crises have a long history. We document the long-run evolution from classic banking panics towards modern banking crises where financial guarantees are associated with crisis resolution. Recent crises feature a feedback loop between bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456615
The US advantage in per capita output, apparent from the late 19th century, is frequently attributed to its relatively large domestic market. We construct market potential measures for the US and 26 other countries between 1880 and 1913 based on a general equilibrium model of production and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459843
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012644160
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479322
Was foreign currency denominated debt a determinant of exchange rate and monetary policy during the Great Depression? Policy makers of the day thought so. High-frequency bond price data show depreciation was associated with elevated risk premia on public debt. We also show that foreign currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482024
, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World … War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463384
, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463732