Introduction -- Discovery of the bond-stock earnings yield differential model -- Prediction of the 2007-2009 stock market crashes in the US, China and Iceland -- The high price-earnings stock market danger approach of Campbell and Shiller versus the BSEYD model -- Other prediction models for the...

We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of business news. From the full text of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984-2017, we estimate a topic model that summarizes business news into interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of...

This paper uses administrative tax data to estimate top wealth in the United States. We assemble new data that links people to their sources of capital income and develop new methods to estimate the degree of return heterogeneity within asset classes. Disaggregated fixed income data reveal that...

Since 1980, foreign investors have timed their purchases and sales of U.S. Treasurys to yield particularly low returns. Their annual dollar-weighted returns, measured by IRRs, are around 3% lower than a buy-and-hold strategy over the same horizon. In comparison, the IRRs achieved by domestic...

Measured as yield spreads against AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium of agency MBS averages 47 basis points over 1995 - 2021, about half of the long-term-Treasury convenience premium. Both MBS convenience premium and issuance amount depend on mortgage rate negatively, consistent with a...