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Flood, Robert P. - 1988

The paper considers the merits of rules and discretion for monetary policy when the structure of the macroeconomic model and the probability distributions of disturbances are not well defined. It is argued that when it is costly to delay policy reactions to seldom-experienced shocks until formal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476290

Shining a Light on Purchasing Power Parities

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2018

study of PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP around the world between 1992 and 2010. First, we find that while market exchange … optimal. Using data from the Penn World Tables, we find that, indeed, it is optimal to only use the latest price data, and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453295

On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma

Bekaert, Geert - 2017

We propose a simple measure of de facto financial market integration based on a factor model of monthly equity returns, which can be computed back to the first era of financial globalization for 17 countries. Global financial market integration follows a "swoosh" shape - i.e. high pre-1913,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455557

Newer Need Not be Better : Evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators Using Nighttime Lights

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2016

Penn World Tables and of the World Development Indicators better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of …-price series in both PWT 8.0 and PWT 8.1, the two most recent vintages of the PWT. We additionally find that the World Development … Indicators are as good, and often better, measures of unobserved true income as are any recent vintages of the Penn World Tables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456459

Premature Deindustrialization

Rodrik, Dani - 2015

I document a significant deindustrialization trend in recent decades, that goes considerably beyond the advanced, post-industrial economies. The hump-shaped relationship between industrialization (measured by employment or output shares) and incomes has shifted downwards and moved closer to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457731

Flights to Safety

Baele, Lieven - 2013

Despite a large and growing theoretical literature on flights to safety, there does not appear to exist an empirical characterization of flight-to-safety (FTS) episodes. Using only data on bond and stock returns, we identify and characterize flight to safety episodes for 23 countries. On...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459566

Inequality Within Countries is Falling : Underreporting-Robust Estimates of World Poverty, Inequality and the Global Distribution of Income

Pinkovskiy, Maxim; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

constant correction to survey-derived inequality estimates. Underreporting of income by the bottom 50% of the world income …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512057

Risky Oil : It's All in the Tails

Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Marcellino, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801

On the Link Between the Volatility and Skewness of Growth

Bekaert, Geert - 2012

In a sample of 110 countries over the period 1960-2009, we document a positive relation between the volatility and skewness of growth in the cross-section. The relation holds regardless of initial level of economic development and of subsequent long-run growth rate. We argue that this novel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460104

Unconditional Convergence

Rodrik, Dani - 2011

Unlike economies as a whole, manufacturing industries exhibit unconditional convergence in labor productivity. The paper documents this finding for 4-digit manufacturing sectors for a large group of developed and developing countries over the period since 1990. The coefficient of unconditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461112