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Allander Series : Skill Policies for Scotland

Heckman, James J. - 2005

This paper argues that skill formation is a life-cycle process and develops the implications of this insight for Scottish social policy. Families are major producers of skills, and a successful policy needs to promote effective families and to supplement failing ones. We present evidence that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467655

Growth Accelerations

Hausmann, Ricardo - 2004

Unlike most cross-country growth analyses, we focus on turning points in growth performance. We look for instances of rapid acceleration in economic growth that are sustained for at least eight years and identify more than 80 such episodes since the 1950s. Growth accelerations tend to be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468127

Premature Deindustrialization

Rodrik, Dani - 2015

I document a significant deindustrialization trend in recent decades, that goes considerably beyond the advanced, post-industrial economies. The hump-shaped relationship between industrialization (measured by employment or output shares) and incomes has shifted downwards and moved closer to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457731

Estimating the Equity Premium

Campbell, John Y. - 2007

To estimate the equity premium, it is helpful to use finance theory: not the old-fashioned theory that efficient … markets imply a constant equity premium, but theory that restricts the time-series behavior of valuation ratios, and that … for stock returns. A steady-state approach suggests that the world geometric average equity premium was almost 4% at the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465226

Institutions Rule : The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development

Rodrik, Dani - 2002

world, using recently developed instruments for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469401

Trade Policy and Economic Growth : A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence

Rodriguez, Francisco - 1999

Do countries with lower policy-induced barriers to international trade grow faster, once other relevant country characteristics are controlled for? There exists a large empirical literature providing an affirmative answer to this question. We argue that methodological problems with the empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471715

Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses

Rodrik, Dani - 1998

This paper argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse after the mid-1970s. It emphasizes conflicts interact with external shocks on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472466

A Primer on Trade and Inequality

Rodrik, Dani - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

In the public imagination globalization's adverse effects have loomed large, contributing significantly to the backlash against the political mainstream and the rise of far-right populism. The literature on trade and inequality is in fact exceptionally rich, with important theoretical insights...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696416

Risky Oil : It's All in the Tails

Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Marcellino, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801

Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings

Cunha, Flavio - 2005

This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable. About 60% of variability in returns to schooling is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467663