We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020-2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative...

In the public imagination globalization's adverse effects have loomed large, contributing significantly to the backlash against the political mainstream and the rise of far-right populism. The literature on trade and inequality is in fact exceptionally rich, with important theoretical insights...

The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...