In recent years, analysts and policy makers alike have been evaluating the nexus between exchange rates and macroeconomic stability. Among the most important questions is why have some countries adopted rigid, including fixed, exchange-rate paper addresses this question from a political economy...

In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large "current account reversals." The results from a variance-component probit model indicate that the probability of experiencing a major current account reversal is positively affected by larger...

This paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates,future spot rates and new information. A stochastic model of exchangerate determination is used to formally show how unanticipated changes in the exchange rate determinants (or "news") affect the spot rate. The empirical...

This note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period. This proposition, often called the "Fisher open" hypothesis or the...

The recent literature on instrumental variables (IV) features models in which agents sort into treatment status on the basis of gains from treatment as well as on baseline-pretreatment levels. Components of the gains known to the agents and acted on by them may not be known by the observing...

It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. This could be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neither of which seems plausible. Instead we argue that...

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) have reinvigorated an old literature on the link between home bias in the goods market and home bias in the asset market by arguing that trade costs in the goods market can account for the observed portfolio home bias. The key link between home bias in the two markets...

The uncovered interest rate parity equation is the cornerstone of most models in international macro. However, this equation does not hold empirically since the forward discount, or interest rate differential, is negatively related to the subsequent change in the exchange rate. This forward...