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Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247924

Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes

Frankel, Jeffrey A.; Hou, Yao; Xie, Danxia - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper develops a new econometric framework to estimate and classify exchange rate regimes. They are classified into four distinct categories: fixed exchange rates, BBC (band, basket and crawl), managed floating, and freely floating. The procedure captures the patterns of exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635607

Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings

Cunha, Flavio - 2005

This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable. About 60% of variability in returns to schooling is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467663

Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls : The Trilemma in the Interwar period

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2004

disorder in the world economy. The interwar disorder often is linked to policies inconsistent with the constraint of the open … yield. This historical analytic narrative is compelling with significant ramifications for today's world, if true but … empirically controversial. We apply theory and empirics to the interwar data and find strong support for the logic of the trilemma …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468300

Selection Bias, Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Returns to Education

Heckman, James J. - 2003

This paper uses newly available Chinese micro data to estimate the return to college education for late 20th century China when allowing for heterogeneous returns among individuals selecting into schooling based on these differences. We use recently developed semiparametric methods to identify...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468820

Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions

Heckman, James J. - 2003

option values, the internal rate of return - a cornerstone of classical human capital theory - is not a useful guide to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468966

Returns to Education : The Causal Effects of Education on Earnings, Health and Smoking

Heckman, James J. - 2016

This paper estimates returns to education using a dynamic model of educational choice that synthesizes approaches in the structural dynamic discrete choice literature with approaches used in the reduced form treatment effect literature. It is an empirically robust middle ground between the two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456384

Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments

Eisenhauer, Phillipp - 2014

We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic discrete choice models. We construct and estimate a simplified dynamic structural model of education that captures some basic features of educational choices in the United States in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458043

Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2013

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459199

Intergenerational Long Term Effects of Preschool - Structural Estimates from a Discrete Dynamic Programming Model

Heckman, James J. - 2013

This paper formulates a structural dynamic programming model of preschool investment choices of altruistic parents and then empirically estimates the structural parameters of the model using the NLSY79 data. The paper finds that preschool investment significantly boosts cognitive and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459584