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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

Chen, Yu-Chin - 2008

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464746

Determinants of Long-Term Growth : A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

Doppelhofer, Gernot - 2000

This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471000

Allander Series : Skill Policies for Scotland

Heckman, James J. - 2005

This paper argues that skill formation is a life-cycle process and develops the implications of this insight for Scottish social policy. Families are major producers of skills, and a successful policy needs to promote effective families and to supplement failing ones. We present evidence that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467655

Newer Need Not be Better : Evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators Using Nighttime Lights

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2016

Penn World Tables and of the World Development Indicators better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of …-price series in both PWT 8.0 and PWT 8.1, the two most recent vintages of the PWT. We additionally find that the World Development … Indicators are as good, and often better, measures of unobserved true income as are any recent vintages of the Penn World Tables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456459

Lights, Camera,... Income! : Estimating Poverty Using National Accounts, Survey Means, and Lights

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2014

developing world and its regions. We get poverty estimates that are substantially lower and fall substantially faster than those …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458831

Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2009

World Distribution of Income and estimate poverty rates, poverty counts and various measures of income inequality and … welfare. Using the official $1/day line, we estimate that world poverty rates have fallen by 80% from 0.268 in 1970 to 0 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463216

Social Security and Democracy

Mulligan, Casey B. - 2002

Many political economic theories use and emphasize the process of voting in their explanation of the growth of Social Security, government spending, and other public policies. But is there an empirical connection between democracy and Social Security program size or design? Using some new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469756

The World Distribution of Income (estimated from Individual Country Distributions)

Sala-i-Martin, Xavier - 2002

We estimate the world distribution of income by integrating individual income distributions for 125 countries between … hosted 11% of the world's poor in 1960. It hosted 66% of them in 1998. We estimate nine indexes of income inequality implied … by our world distribution of income. All of them show substantial reductions in global income inequality during the 1980s …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469781

The Disturbing "Rise" of Global Income Inequality

Sala-i-Martin, Xavier - 2002

person in the world. We then estimate the gaussian kernel density function for the worldwide distribution of income. We … compute world poverty rates by integrating the density function below the poverty lines. The $1/day poverty rate has fallen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469810

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

Obstfeld, Maurice - 1995

This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473688