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The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility

Heckman, James J. - 2014

This paper distills and extends recent research on the economics of human development and social mobility. It summarizes the evidence from diverse literatures on the importance of early life conditions in shaping multiple life skills and the evidence on critical and sensitive investment periods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458740

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

Chen, Yu-Chin - 2008

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464746

Determinants of Long-Term Growth : A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

Doppelhofer, Gernot - 2000

This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471000

World Real Interest Rates

Barro, Robert J. - 1990

We think of the expected real interest rate for ten OECD countries (our counterpart of the world economy) as determined … estimated the reduced form for CDP-weighted world averages of the expected short-term real interest rate and the investment … ratio over the period 1959-88. The estimates reveal significant effects in the predicted direction for world stock returns …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475718

Allander Series : Skill Policies for Scotland

Heckman, James J. - 2005

This paper argues that skill formation is a life-cycle process and develops the implications of this insight for Scottish social policy. Families are major producers of skills, and a successful policy needs to promote effective families and to supplement failing ones. We present evidence that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467655

Do Democracies Have Different Public Policies than Nondemocracies?

Mulligan, Casey B. - 2003

-90. Based on three tenets of voting theory -- that voting mutes policy preference intensity, political power is equally …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468656

Newer Need Not be Better : Evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators Using Nighttime Lights

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2016

Penn World Tables and of the World Development Indicators better estimate true income per capita. We find that revisions of …-price series in both PWT 8.0 and PWT 8.1, the two most recent vintages of the PWT. We additionally find that the World Development … Indicators are as good, and often better, measures of unobserved true income as are any recent vintages of the Penn World Tables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456459

Lights, Camera,... Income! : Estimating Poverty Using National Accounts, Survey Means, and Lights

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2014

developing world and its regions. We get poverty estimates that are substantially lower and fall substantially faster than those …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458831

Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2009

World Distribution of Income and estimate poverty rates, poverty counts and various measures of income inequality and … welfare. Using the official $1/day line, we estimate that world poverty rates have fallen by 80% from 0.268 in 1970 to 0 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463216

Flexibility and Job Creation : Lessons for Germany

Heckman, James J. - 2002

This paper examines the performance of the German economy and the role of the regulation and welfare state policies in affecting its performance. While the German economy is still strong, incentives in place are likely to impair future German competitiveness and productivity

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469516