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Consumption Risk and International Asset Returns : Some Empirical Evidence

Cumby, Robert E. - 1987

The paper examines if real stock returns in four countries are consistent with consumption-based models of international asset pricing. The paper finds that ex-ante real stock returns exhibit statistically significant fluctuations over time and that these fluctuations cannot be explained by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476685

Stuck on Gold : Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard

Chernyshoff, Natalia - 2005

thought not, and theory offers ambiguous messages. A hard exchange-rate regime such as the gold standard might limit monetary … absorption in a world of real shocks and nominal stickiness. A simple model shows how a lack of flexibility can be discerned in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466876

Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls : The Trilemma in the Interwar period

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2004

disorder in the world economy. The interwar disorder often is linked to policies inconsistent with the constraint of the open … yield. This historical analytic narrative is compelling with significant ramifications for today's world, if true but … empirically controversial. We apply theory and empirics to the interwar data and find strong support for the logic of the trilemma …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468300

The Time for Austerity : Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

Jordà, Òscar - 2013

After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459247

Trade Policy and Economic Growth : A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence

Rodriguez, Francisco - 1999

Do countries with lower policy-induced barriers to international trade grow faster, once other relevant country characteristics are controlled for? There exists a large empirical literature providing an affirmative answer to this question. We argue that methodological problems with the empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471715

Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses

Rodrik, Dani - 1998

This paper argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse after the mid-1970s. It emphasizes conflicts interact with external shocks on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472466

Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

Jordà, Òscar - 2018

This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453043

A Primer on Trade and Inequality

Rodrik, Dani - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

In the public imagination globalization's adverse effects have loomed large, contributing significantly to the backlash against the political mainstream and the rise of far-right populism. The literature on trade and inequality is in fact exceptionally rich, with important theoretical insights...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696416

Credit Booms Gone Bust : Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008

Schularick, Moritz - 2009

The crisis of the advanced economies in 2008-09 has focused new attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463137

Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008

Obstfeld, Maurice - 2009

In this paper we connect the events of the last twelve months, "The Panic of 2008" as it has been called, to the demand for international reserves. In previous work, we have shown that international reserve demand can be rationalized by a central bank's desire to backstop the broad money supply...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463821