This paper assesses the quantitative effects of a shift to monetary restraint in the United States on the DM-$ exchange rate and the German economy. The results indicate that such effects are large. If Germany keeps its money growth unchanged, it will tend to experience a sharp and sustained...

This paper represents a very early progress report on a new study of business cycle indicators for the United States. Our host organization, CIRET, is concerned with research on surveys of economic tendencies that cover broad areas of business, investment, and consumer behavior. These inquiries...

A reexamination of data indicates a great diversity of cyclical experience in both the distant and recent history, but also a distinct moderation of the business cycle in the postwar era (shorter and milder contractions). This is consistent with long and widely held views, but contrary to some...