-degenerate higher-order beliefs) can lead to conflict and drive its dynamics. We develop our analysis in the context of three classic … learning about the opponent's type, as well as the possibility of conflict spirals, traps, and cycles; and a deterrence model …. We relate these models to the empirical literature and to current and historical episodes of conflict …

-resolution data on ethnic composition and violent conflict for sub-Saharan Africa, our analysis finds that in the wake of improved … trade access conflict declines less in locations that are ethnically remote from the rest of the country. We hypothesize …

be a major cause of conflict between pastoral and agricultural ethnic groups. We test this hypothesis using geocoded data … traditionally pastoral areas leads to an almost two-fold increase in the risk of conflict. We find no equivalent effect for … location. We also find that this mechanism contributes to the spread of extremist-religious conflict in the form of jihadist …