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Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to" improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and" falls with theory,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472523
We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure can be tailored to the forecast horizons of interest, and it allows for general loss functions, univariate or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472693
estimation is not known in closed form. Using simulation and nonparametric density estimation techniques that facilitate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473336
Motivated by recent developments in the bounded rationality and strategic complementarity literatures, we examine an intentionally simple and stylized aggregative economic model, when the assumptions of fully rational expectations and no strategic interactions are relaxed. We show that small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473377
This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings of the MSG2 simulation model of the world economy. The MSG2 model is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475945