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What Works for the Unemployed? Evidence From Quasi-Random Caseworker Assignments

Humlum, Anders; Munch, Jakob Roland; Rasmussen, Mette - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

This paper examines if active labor market programs help unemployed job seekers find jobs using a novel random caseworker instrumental variable (IV) design. Leveraging administrative data from Denmark, our identification strategy exploits that (i) job seekers are quasi-randomly assigned to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409839

Genetic Endowments, Income Dynamics, and Wealth Accumulation Over the Lifecycle

Barth, Daniel; Papageorge, Nicholas W.; Thom, Kevin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We develop and estimate a life-cycle consumption savings model in which observed genetic variation is allowed to affect wealth accumulation through several distinct channels. We focus on genetic markers that predict educational attainment, aggregated into a predictive index called a polygenic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362004

Heterogeneous Returns to Active Labour Market Programs for Indigenous Populations

Feir, Donna; Foley, Kelly; Jones, Maggie - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This paper studies the impact of active labour market programs for institutionally distinct Indigenous populations in Canada using administrative data on the universe of participants in the Aboriginal Skills and Employment Training Strategy (ASETS). Within Indigenous population groups, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334377

The Global Life-Cycle Optimizer – Analyzing Fiscal Policy's Potential to Dramatically Distort Labor Supply and Saving

Brumm, Johannes; Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; Krause, Christopher - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Fiscal policy in the U.S. and other countries renders intertemporal budgets non-differentiable, nonconvex, and discontinuous. Consequently, assessing work and saving responses to policy requires global optimization. This paper develops the Global Life-Cycle Optimizer (GLO), a stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528375

The Political Economy of Stimulus Transfers

Vannutelli, Silvia - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

Stimulus transfers are widely used during economic downturns, yet they are often poorly targeted from an economic perspective. I show that political incentives might help explain this discrepancy. I study one of the largest stimulus tax credits in Italy which excluded the poorest individuals and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015421924

Optimal Estimation of Discrete Choice Demand Models with Consumer and Product Data

Grieco, Paul L. E.; Murry, Charles; Pinkse, Joris; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

We propose a conformant likelihood estimator with exogeneity restrictions (CLEER) for random coefficients discrete choice demand models that is applicable in a broad range of data settings. It combines the likelihoods of two mixed logit estimators--one for consumer level data, and one for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195043

Global Natural Rates in the Long Run : Postwar Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r* in 10 Advanced Economies

Davis, Joshua M.; Fuenzalida, Cristian; Huetsch, Leon; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk premia. This natural rate puzzle applies not only in the U.S. but across many advanced economies. We use a unified no-arbitrage macro- finance model with two trend factors to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421212

Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs

Lise, Jeremy - 2004

This paper makes three primary contributions. First, we demonstrate the usefulness of general equilibrium models as tools with which to draw policy implications for policies implemented in practice only as small-scale social experiments. Second, we illustrate the usefulness of social experiments...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468410

Inconsistent Policy Evaluation : A Case Study for a Large Workfare Program

Alik-Lagrange, Arthur - 2015

Evaluations of workfare programs in poor rural economies have typically ignored two features that policy makers stress … methods to incorporate both features, and shows that doing so can switch the policy ranking in favor of welfare over workfare … suggested by past methods, despite a more "poor-poor" incidence. A basic-income guarantee would dominate net workfare earnings …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457627

Bounding the Labor Supply Responses to a Randomized Welfare Experiment : A Revealed Preference Approach

Kline, Patrick - 2015

We study the short-term impact of Connecticut's Jobs First welfare reform experiment on women's labor supply and welfare participation decisions. A non-parametric optimizing model is shown to restrict the set of counterfactual choices compatible with each woman's actual choice. These revealed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457828