Traditional mean-variance efficient portfolios do not capture the potential wealth creation opportunities provided by predictability of asset returns. We propose a simple method for constructing optimally managed portfolios that exploits the possibility that asset returns are predictable. We...

To study the welfare implications of rising temperature we propose a temperature-augmented long-run risks model that accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected temperature path, the observed consumption growth...

We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...